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(??? ?"? ???? ??-????? ????). ????? ?? ?????? ?????????, ?"? ???? ????? ??????????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ?????, ????? ??? ????????, ????? ?????? ??? ??????. ??????, ??? ?"? ???? ????? ??-Human Rights Data Analysis Group, ?? ?????? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ???????, ????? ?"? ????? ?????-?????? ??????????? ???????? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ?????. ??? ????, ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ???????, ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? (???? ???, ???, ???? ??????) ?? ?????? ???? (??? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ?????). ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ???????, ??? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ?????-?????? ???? JSM2014 ???? ???????????? ?????? ????? ?? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????. ????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ????? ????? ???? ???? ???. ????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? (?? ????) ?????? ??????? ?????, ?? ????? ????? ?????? 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(??? ????? ???? ???) ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ?? ??? ????? ?????. ????? ?????? ????? ???????? ??????? ??? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ????. ????? ???????? ?? ????? ???????? ???? ????? ??? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ?? ?????? ????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ????? ????? ??? (?? ???????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????) ?? ??. ????? ?? ???? ????? ????????.[1] ???? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ???????, ??? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ???????, ??????? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ???????, ??? ?????? ??????? ??????, ??? ?????? ??????? ????????, ??? ????, ?? ???? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ???????. ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? – ??? ?? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ???????. ???? ?????? ????? ????????? ?????: ??? ??? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ?? ????? ?? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ?? ?? ?? ????. ????? ????????? ????????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ??? "???? ????? ???" ("capture – recapture") ????? ???? ???? ?????? ??????? ?????. ???? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ??????. ???? ????? ????? ????? ????: ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ????, ???? 1000, ?????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ?????, ???????? ???? ????. ??? ???? ?? X ????, 1000 ????? ???????. ??????? ??? ?? ??? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ???? ???????? ?? ??????, ??? ?????? ??? 1000 ????, ??????? ??? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????. ?? 50 ???? ???? ???????, ?????? ?? ?????????? ????? ???????? ???? ??? 5%, ??????? ????? ??? ?? ?? ???? 1000 ???? ??????? ??????? 5% ???? ????? ????, ???? ???? ?? ?? ?? ???? ????? ???? ??? 20,000. ???? ????? ????? ????. ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????, ????? ?????? ??? ?????. ??? ?? ??? ??? ?????. ?????, ????? ?? ????? ???????, ?????? ?????? ?????, ????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ?? ????. ????, ?? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ????, ?????? ???? ?? ??? 50 ???? ???????? ?????? ?????, ?? ??? ????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? ???, ??????? ??? ???????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ?????? ????? ??????? ????. ???? ????? ????? ???? ???? ??? ?? ??????, ?????? ????? ???? ??? ????, ?? ????? ?? ????? ???????, ??? ??? ????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ??. ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???????, ???? ??? ??????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???. ????? ??????? ??? ???? ?????: ?????? ?? ?????, ????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????, ??? ?????? ??????? ???? ???? ???? ??????? ?? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ????. ??? ??? ???? ????? ?? ?? ???? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????, ?????. ??? ????? ????? ?? ???????????, ????? ???? (?? ???? ??????) ????? ????? ??? ??????? ??????. ????? ???? ?? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????, ??????????? ?? ?? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? "???? ?????" ??? ???????? ??? ?? ???. ?? ???? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? (????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ?????), ??????? ??????? ???????. ???? ???? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???? ?????. ?????? ?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? (????? ???, ???? ??? ??????). ??? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????. ????? ????? ???????? ???, ?????? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ?????. ?????? (?????? ???? JSM, ??????, ?????? 2014): * Global Impact: Statistical Analyses of Conflict Data in Syria, Guatemala, and Colombia — Shira Mitchell, Harvard ; Al Ozonoff, Harvard ; Kristian Lum, Virginia Tech ; Alan M. Zaslavsky, Harvard ; Brent Coull, Harvard School of Public Health * Estimating Undocumented Deaths During the Syrian Conflict — Patrick Ball, Human Rights Data Analysis Group ; Anita Gohdes, Human Rights Data Analysis Group ; Megan Price, Human Rights Data Analysis Group * Record Linkage and Capture-Recapture in the the Analysis of Genocide in Guatemala — Patrick Ball, Human Rights Data Analysis Group * Large-Scale Clustering Approaches for Identifying Unique Human Rights Violations — Samuel Ventura, Carnegie Mellon * Bayesian Multiple-Recapture Estimation of Casualties in Armed Conflicts Using Nonparametric Mixtures — Daniel Manrique-Vallier, Indiana University ????? 1. ????? ????? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ??? "????? ??????". [?] ????: 12 ???????, 2014 ??????: ?? ????? ??????????, ?? ??? ????. ??????: 3 | ?????? ??? ????????? ?? ???????? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ????????? ?? ?????????? ????? ???????? ???????. ????? ?? ??? ??? ????? ?? ????? ?????, ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????. ??? ???????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ?????? "??????? ??? ????????" ????? ?????? "?????? ????" 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"????? ???" ?? ????? ?????? ?????. ?? ???, ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ???? ???? ?????? ????????? ????? ????? ????? ??????. ?????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???? 1767[3]. ??????????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?? ????: ?????? ???????? ??? ????? ????? ???????, ???? ????? ????? ??????? "????? ??????" ?? ??? ????? ???????? ???? ????? ?? ?????. ??? ????? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????. ?????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ????. ?????? ??? ?? ??? ????? ????? ???? ???? ???? ?? ???? ?????, ??? ????? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????. ??? ??, ????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??????. ?????? ???: ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ???????. ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ????????? ??????? ??? ??? ?????? ??????. ??? ?? ??? ????? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ????????? ???? ??? ?????. ?????? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????, ????? ?????, ????? ????? ????? ???????, ?? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ??? ????? ????? ?????. ????? ????? ????????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?-20[4]. ???? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? (??????) ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ?? ???? ????, ??? ????? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ???? ??????. ??????, ????? ?-1930 ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? 6-12, ????? ?-67 ??? ???. ?-5000 ????? ???? ???, ?-5000 ???? ??????, ??-10000 ????? ????? ?????? ???????. ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? (?????? 1930) ?????? (???? 1930). ?????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ??? ????? ?? ????? ??????, ??? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??????. ??? ?? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ??? ??????. ????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ??. ?? ??????? ???? ???? ???????, ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ???? 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(?? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ????). ??? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ?????? ????, ????? ???? ????? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???????? ??????? ????? ???????. ?????? ??????????? ??? ??? ????? ???? ?? ??????, ??? ??? ????? ?? ??????????, ????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ?????, ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ??? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ??????. ?????? ??????? ?? ??????, ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ?? ???????? ???????, ?? ?????? ????, ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?-"?? ???". ?? ????? ?? ????? ??????????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???? ?-1923, ?????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ????????. ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? ?? ?-1947, ???? ?????? ?????? ???. ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????????? ???? ??????????? ?????? ????? ?????[7]. ??? ?????? ????????????, ?? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ????? 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(Double Blind), ??? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????,[8] ???? ????? ???? ??? ????? ????? ????? ???: ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? 1943 ?????? ??????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????????. ?????? ???????? ?? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ?????????, ?? ??? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????. ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ????. ????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????, ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??????????? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ??????. ?? ???, ?????? ?? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????. ?????? ???? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??????, ????? ?-1954[9]. ????? ????? ??? ???????. ?????? ?????? ??? ??????????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????????, ???? ???? ????? ?? 70% ????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ???????. ???? ????? ????? (?-400 ??? ????? ?????? 6-8) ???? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?? ???????. ?????? ???? ????? ????, ?? ????? ?????? (????? ?? ?????) ?? ????? ????????. 725,000 ?????? ????? ? ?-? ??????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??????, ?????? ????? ?? 125,000 ????? ?????? ?' ??????? ????? ??????. ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? 225,000 ?????? ????? ?' ??????? ?????? ?????. ??"? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ???????, ???? ?? 3 ????? ?????? ?? ?????. ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? 44% ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ?????, ????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ??????-??????? ?? ????? ??????. ???? ????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ????, ?????? ???????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????? (??? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????) ???? ???? ???? ??? ??? ???????? ?????? ???? ???????. ????? ?? ????? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????[10], ??? ?? ????? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????. ????? 1. ?? ??????? ???? ?' ?? ??? ????? [?] 2. 2 ???? ?? 3 ????? ??? ????? ????. ?????? 7 ????? ??? ?????? ?????, 1512 ????? ?????? ????? ??????, ?-100,000 ??? ???????. [?] 3. Boylston, A. W. (2002). Clinical investigation of smallpox in 1767.New England Journal of Medicine, 346(17), 1326-1328. [?] 4. Leighton G, McKinlay P (1930). Milk consumption and the growth of school-children. Department of Health forScotland, Edinburgh and London: HM Stationery Office. [?] 5. Student (1931). The Lanarkshire Milk Experiment. Biometrika 23:398-406. [?] 6. Fisher RA, Bartlett S (1931). Pasteurised and raw milk. Nature 127:591-592. [?] 7. Medical Research Council Streptomycin in Tuberculosis Trials Committee. (1948). Streptomycin treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis. BMJ, 2, 769-82. [?] 8. Hart, P. D. A. (1999). A change in scientific approach: from alternation to randomised allocation in clinical trials in the 1940s.BMJ, 319(7209), 572-573. [?] 9. Meier, Paul. "Polio trial: an early efficient clinical trial." Statistics in medicine 9.1‐2 (1990): 13-16. [?] 10. ??? ?? ?? ?????? ?????? 1936 – ????? ??? ???, ????? ????? ?????? ??? ?? ???? ???? ?? ????? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ???? ??????? [?] ????: 24 ?????, 2014 ??????: ????????????, ?????? ??????? ??????????, ????????, ???, ??????. ??????: 4 | ?????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ???????? ????? ????? ???????? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ????? ????????. ????? ??? ????. ???? ????? ?????? ???? "????? ??? ?? ???????" ??? ???? ??? ?????? "??? ????????". ?????, ???? ??????, ???? ??? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????. ??? 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(????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????) ??? ??????? ?? ?????. ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ???????, ?????, ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????[1] ?? ?????? ???? ?????. ??? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??????? ???? ???????? ????, ????? ??? ?????, ?????, ???????? ??????? ?????. ????? ?? ??????????? ??"?, ??? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ???????? ?? ??????. ?????? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ?-90% ???? ?????? ????????? ?????, ??? ????. ????? ???: ??????? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????, ???????? ????? ?????. ?? ???, ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ?-2015 ???? ?????? ???? ?????, ?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??????, ????? ??? ????? ??????? ?????, ???? ?????? ?????? ?????. ??? ???? ????? ????????. ?? ??, ?? ????? ?? ????????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???????? (??????, ?? ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????). ??? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ????? ??. ?????? ????? ???? ??????: ????? ??????, ?????? ?????? ????????? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????. ????? ??? ????? ????. ?? ????? ????? ??? ?????, ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ????? ???????/?????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ?????? ???? ???. ?? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?? ?????, ???????? ??? ????? ????, ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ?? ??? ?????. ??? ?? ????? ???? ???????. ???? ???? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ?? ????? (???? ?? ?????) ????? ????????? ???? ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???. ??? ???? ??? ?? ????? ????? ??????. ?? ????? ?????? ?? ?? ?????? ??? ?? ????. ????? ?????? ???????. ?????? ????: "???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ????? ?-80 ?????? ????? ??? ?-70 ????, ????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?-160 ????". ?? ????. ?? ????? ??? ??? ????. ???? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?-80 ?? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ???? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ?????. 70 ???? ?? ??? 1980 ????? ?-201 ???? ?? ??? 2014, ?? ????? ????? ?????? ?? 20% ????? ???? ??????. ??, ??? ??? ?????? ???. ???? ???? ?-80 ?? ?????? ??? ???? 1989? 70 ???? ?? 1989 ????? ??-134 ????, ????? ??? ????? ???? ?????? ?? 20%[2]. ?????, ??? ??? ??? ????? ????? ????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ????? ???? ???? ???? ??????. ?????? ?????, ????? ?? ?????? ????????? ????? ???? ?? ????? ?????????? ?? ?????? ?????[3], ??? ????? ?? ???????, ?????. ????? ?? ?? ?????? ?? ????. ??????? ????? ????? ?? ?????: ???? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????? (??? ?? ?????? ????? ???-?????? ????? ????, ???????? ????? ????). ?? ?????? ?? ???????, ?????, ???????. ?????? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ??? ?-"????? ?????"[4]: "????? ??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ??? ???? ???? ???? ??? ?? ????? ??? , ??? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?????????? )) ??? ??? ??????? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ??????" ??, ??? ???? ???? ????? ?????. ?????? ????, ?????, ????? ???????? ?????? ??????, ??? ????. ????? ?? ???????. ????? 1. ???? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ??? ?? ???????, ?????? ?? ?????? ????, ?????? ?????? ??? [?] 2. ?-70 ???? ?-1989 ?-160 ???? [?] 3. ??? ???? ???? ????? ?????, ???? ??? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ????? [?] 4. ????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ????, ???? ???? ??? [?] ????: 8 ?????, 2014 ??????: ???, ??????, ?? ??? ????. ??????: 6 | ?????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ????’? ???? ????, ?? ????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ??-???? ????"? ?????? ?????? ??? 2014 ?? ????????. ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ?-NBA, ?-1998. ??? ???? ?'????, ??? ???? ??????. ??? ?? ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????. ??? ??? ???: ???????? ?????? ?? 15 ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ?????, ???? ?????? ????, ???? ????, ??????? ????? ???? ?? ?? ?????: ????? ????? ????, ???? ????????, ??????? ????? ??????, ??? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ?????? ??????. ?????? ?????, ???? ?? ??? ?????. ??????? ?????????, ???? ????? ?????? ?? ??????. ???? 3 ?????? ????????, ????? ??? ?? ??? ????. ????????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????: ????? ??? ???? ????? ?-30 ?????? ???? ????? ???"?, ??? ????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ????, ?? ???? ?? ???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? 15 ?????? ?? 30 ??????. ????? ???, ????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?-16 ?????? ???? ????? ????, ?????? ?????????? ?? 3 ?????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ???????. ??? ?? ???? ????’? ????? ???? ??? ?? ???? ?????. ????? ??????? ????? ????? ??????, ???? ???? ?? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?-3[1]. ?? ????? ?????? ?????????, ???? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ?-6 (??????? 7 ?? ????) ????????. ?? ???? ?????? ??? ????: ???? ?????? 6:1 ?????? ??????? (????? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ?-6), ????? ???? ??????? ????? ?????? 6:4, ??? ????? ?? ???? ?-2 ?????? ???? ?-3, ??? ???? ??? ??? ?-13 ????????, ???? ?????? ???? ?-14 ????????. ????? ??, ??????? ?? ?????? ???????, ???? ???? ?-5% ?????? ????? ??????????[2]. ??? ???? ??? ?? ????? ???????: ???"? ????? ?-3 ???? 4 ???? ?????, ?? ?????? ????? ????. ????? ?? ???? ????? ??????? ?-"????? ???????" ???? ????? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???’? ????, ??? ?????? ????? ??? ??????. ??? ???? ?-28 ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ???????? ???? ?????. ????? ???? 24 ??????, ?? 4 ????????. ?????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ?'?? ?????? , ?? ???? ?? 19 ??????? ?-5 ??????. ?????? ???? ?? ????? ????? ????? ????? ?????????, ?????? ???????? ?-2010, ?? ???? ?? ????? ?????? 70:68 ?????? ???????. ????? ??"?, ?????? ??? ?-24 ?????? ???? ???? ?????.[3] ?????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ????? ?? ????, ??????? ???? ??? ???. ??? ????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ????; ???? ???? ????? ?-80% ??????? ??? ?????. ???? ??? – ???? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ????? ???? ????. ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????. ???? ????? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ???????. ??? ???? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? 6:0, ??? ?? ?? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ???????? ???? ???? ???, ??? ???? ????? ????????, ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ??????, ??? ??? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ????? 1. ???? ???????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ???? ?-5 ?????? [?] 2. Wright, B., Rodenberg, R. M., & Sackmann, J. (2013). Incentives in Best of N Contests: Quasi-Simpson's Paradox in Tennis.International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 13(3), 790-802. [?] 3. ??? ???? ???????, ?? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ????? [?] ????: 17 ????, 2014 ??????: ????? ???????, ?????, ???? ??????. ??????: 1 | ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ????? ????????? – ????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ?????? (?????, ????? ?????!) ?????? ?? ????? “????? ???" ????? ????? ???? ??????, ?/?? ?? ????? ???????? ?????? ????. ?? ?? ?? ???????? ????? ??????. ??? ???? ????? ?? ????? ???????, ???? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???????. ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??????????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????????? (????). ????? ??????, ??? ??? ????? ??????, ??? ?????, ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???? ????? ????????? ???????, ????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ????, ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ???. ??? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ????. ?? ??? ??? ??? ????, ???? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ???. ?????? ????? ?? ???????, ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ????. ???? ???? ??? ??? ??????, ???? ???? ?? ?? ?????? ???????, ??? ????? ??????????, ???? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ????, ??? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ???? ??????. ??? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ?????, ??? ???? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????? ??? ???? ?? ??????, ??????, ??????? ????????. ??? ??, ??? ???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ?? ????? ????? ????????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ?????? ??, ?????? ??????? ???? ??????. ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ????, ?????? ????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ??. ????? ???, ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?????, ????? ????? ?????? ??????????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ??????, ????? ????. ?? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ????. ????? ????? ??? ????, ?????? ???? 2000 ???? ??? BMJ, ?????? ???? ??? ?? ????. ?????[1] ????, ?????, ????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ????????? ?- perennial allergic rhinitis (????/???? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????). ?????? ?????? ???? ????. ????????/??????? ???????? ?????? ???? ????? ?????, ?? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ??????, ????? ????? ?? ???????? ????? ?????, ?????? ???? ????? ??????. ??? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?????, ?? ???? ??? ?? ?? ????? ????? ????????? ????? ?????. ???? ??????? ???????? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ????? ?????????, ?????? ????? ???? ?? ????. ?????? ???? ??, ?? ?????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ?????????, ?? ??? ?????: ????? ????? ????, ??????? ???? ????? ?????. ???? ????? ?????, ????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???? ??????. ????? ??? ????? ????? ?????????, ????? ?????? ???? ?????. ?????? ????? ?????? ?????; ?? ?????? ??? ???????/?????? ???? ???? ??? ?? ????? ???? ?? ????. ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ??????. ????? ??????, ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ???????. ??????? ????? ?? ??? ????? ?? ??? ??????? (??????? ?????? ?????? ?????? – false positive) ?? 5%, ??????? ????? ????? (??????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? – true positive) ?? 80%, ?? ???? ????? ????? 120 ????? (60 ??? ?????). ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? 51 ?????. ?? ??? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? ?????. ????? ??????: ???? ???? ????? ???????? ??? ???????, ????? ????? ?????? ?????????? ???? Nasal inspiratory peak flow, ?? ???, ???? Visual analogue scale (VAS), ?? ???? ???? ??????. ???? ??????, ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? ??????????, ????? ???? ???? ???? ???????????. ??????? ?? ??????? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????? ??????. ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? ??, ??????? ????? ????? (pooled analysis) ????? ????? ?? ?????????. ?????? ?? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ?????/ ?????, ????? ???? ????, ??????? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ????? ???????[2]. ??? ????? ?? ??? ???????? (??????? ??????? ???? ???? ??? ????) ??????????. ???? ????, ???? ????? ???????, ???? ?? ?????? ???????? ????, ?????? ????? ????? ????? ??? ?? 51 ?????, ??? 120 ??? ??????. ??? ????? ?????? ?????, ??? ???????, ?? 43% ??? 80% (?? ????? ?? ??????). ???? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ???? ???? ?????????? ???????????? ?? ??????? ???????. ???? ?????, ????, ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??????? ?????, ??? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ????????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????, ???????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ????? – false negative. ????? ?????, ???? ?????? ?????, ????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????, ?? ??? ????. ??? ???????? ?? ??????, ???????? ?????? ????? – false positive, ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ???? ???, ???? ????? ????? ?????. ??????? ??? ??????? ?????, ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???? ??????????? VAS ???? ????? ????? ???? ??????? ??????. ????? ???, ??????? ?? ?"? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??? ????. ????? ???????', ??????? ??????? ?????? ???????, ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ?????? (???? ????????? ?? ?????????????), ????? ????? ????? ????. ???? ????. ?"? ????? ??????, ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ????? MDS ????, ??????, ???? ???? ????: ?????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?? ??? VAS, ??? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????. ???? ?? ?????? ????. ?????, ?????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ???????? ???????. ????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ??. ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??, ??? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ????? (primary endpoint) ?? ??????,[3] ??? ?? ?????? ???????? ???????? ???????, ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ????. ???????? ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ???????? ????? ???? ????? – false positive – ?? ?????, ???? ????? ?-5%, ?????? ??? ??????.[4] ?"? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ????? ????????, ????? ???? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ??. ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ?? ?. ???? ?????, ????? ???????, ????? ??? ?????? ???? ???????? ????? ?????? ?? ??????), ?????? ???, ?????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ??????????? ????, ???? ?? ????? ???? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ????????? ?? ????? ?????? ???????????. ???? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ????????. ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ??????? ?????, ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ???. ?? ??? ???? , ???? (?????? ??? ?????? ????/?????): "????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??????: ‘Statistics in study were flawed’-?????????? ????? ????? ????. ?? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???????? ????????? (??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ??????) ???? ?? ??????? (????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ??? ?? ?????) ????? ?? ?????/????? ????? ????????." ????, ????? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ????, ???? ?????? ?? ????????? ???. ????? ???? ?? ??? ??????? ?? ?"? ??????, ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ???, ????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ???? ????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ????? ????????, ?????: "??????? ????? ?? ??? ????? ?? 51 ??????, ??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ?? ?120!". ?? ???? ???? ?? ?????? ????? ?????. ??????? ????? ?????? ?? 51 ?????, ?? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????. ???? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ???????? (???? t ?????? ??????? ???). ??? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ???????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?-60, ????? 24 ?-27 ??? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ????? ?????, ????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ??? ???. ??? ????? ?????? ??? ?? ????. ??? ???????, ???? ????? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ????????? ?? ??????, ?? ?? ?????? ????????? ???. ????? ???? ??? ?????, ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ???? (??? ???? ????? "????? ?? ?????" ??? ???? ?????). ????? ???? ????? ?? "51 ????? ???? ????? ????? ???? ???? ???". ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???! ???? ????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??????: ???????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????, ???? ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ?????, ??????? ????????? ??? ?????? ????? (???? ????? ???? ???????? ????? ????? 5%, ??????? ?????? ?????). ??? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ??. ???? ????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ???? ?? 50, 40 ?? ????? ???? ??? ???? ????? ?????. ????? ???? ?? ?? ?????? ? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? ??????. ?? ??? ???? ?????? "????", ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???????? ?? ??????????? ????? ????? ??? "???? ???????"? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ????? ???? ?????. ?????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????????, ??? ??????? ?? ???? ???. ??? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????. ????? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??????. ????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? (?? ?? ?? ?????? ??????) ???? ?????? ???? ?????? ??????, ??? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????. ?? ?????? ?? ????, ?????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????, ???????? ?????? ??????. ??? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????????, ?/?? ????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?? ??? ????? ????? ????? ??????, ??? ?? ???? ??? ????? ??????. ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ?-"????? ????" ?? ???? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ?????, ?????? ????? ??? ???? ????. ????? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ???????: 27 ?????? ????? ????? 24 ?????? ??????, ???? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? (??????????). ????, ?? ???? ???? 51 ????? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ????? ????? ??? ????? ?? 26-25. ????, ??? ?????? ??? ???? ????: 24-27. ?? ???? ???? ?????? 51 ?????, ?? ???????? ?? ????? ????? 26 ????? ?? ?? ?-25 ????? ?? ????[5] ?? ????? 27 ?? ?-24 ???, ??? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?????[6] ????? ???? ?????????? ?? ??????: ????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ??? ????? ?????, ?? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ????? ???, ??????? ?? ?? ????? ????? ???????? ?? ???? ????? ???????????. ???? ???? ?????, ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??, ?? "????? ???? ?????? ?"? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???????? ?????. ?? ??? ??? ???? ????? ????????? ????". ??? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????????? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ????? ????????? ???????? ???????, ??? ????? ????? ??? – ??? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ??????. ??? ????? ????? ???????????. ??????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?????: ??? ???? ????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ??, ???? ?????/???????? ?????. ???? ??? ??? ????? ???? ??????, ????? ?? ?? ?? ?????? ???????? ?????? ??, ?? ?????, ??? ????? ???????????! ????? ?? ??? ?? ???? ????? ????????? ?? ?????, ??? ?? ????? ?????. ?? ????? ?????? ??????. ?????? ????? ?????? ?????, ?????? ??? ??? ?? ???, ?? ???? ????????? ?????. ????? ????? ?????: "??? ?? ????? ?? ‘although the researchers were not blinded.’ – ??????? ?? ??? '????????', ????? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ?????.". ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ?? ?????, ????? ?? ??? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????. ??????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ????????? ?????? ????? ??????, ??? ????? ??????? ???? ??????????? ????. ??? ??????? ????, ????? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ?? ?? ?????? ????? ????????? ??? ????? ?? ???? ??????, ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ????? ?????????, ??? ????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????. ????? ?????. ??????: ??? ?"?????" ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ????. ????? ??????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ????? ?"? ??????: ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ?????? – VAS, ????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ???, ?/??? ????? ????? ????? (?????). ???? ???? ???? ?????? ???, ??? ????? ?????? ???? ????, ??????? ?????? false positive ?????? ????? ????? ???? ?-5% ?? ?? ???? ???? ?????? ?????. ????? 1. Taylor, M. A., Reilly, D., Llewellyn-Jones, R. H., McSharry, C., & Aitchison, T. C. (2000). Randomised controlled trial of homoeopathy versus placebo in perennial allergic rhinitis with overview of four trial series. BMJ: British Medical Journal,321(7259), 471. [?] 2. Homoeopathy versus placebo in perennial allergic rhinitis. BMJ: British Medical Journal, 2001; 322(7279): 169. [?] 3. ?? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ????????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ????, ??? ??, ???. [?] 4. ?? ???? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ?? ????, ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ??????? ???????, ??????? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ?????. ???? ??? ??? ??, ???? ??? ??????? ??? ?????. [?] 5. ?? 11%, ????? ?? ??????? ?? 89% ?? ?????? ?? ???? 25-26. [?] 6. ??. ?? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?? ??? 0.5 ????? ???-p ?? 0.6683. [?] ????: 20 ??????, 2014 ??????: ????????????, ???, ??????. ??????: 12 | ?????? ? ??????? ?????? ? 2016 ????? ?????? | ????? | ?? ?? WordPress ????? - ??????? ??????? | ????? - ????? ????????? | ????? ?????? - ??"? ??? ????????

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